Voice-over-IP could take 20 years to see off the old steam telephone,
according to HP networking chief John McHugh.
The 'slow retirement' of the old PBX phone shows how long network
infrastructure takes to change, he told a
Netevents forum in
Garmisch, Germany.
'Every year for at least five years we have been told VoIP is about to
happen. It isn't.
'It is going to be a slow erosion [of legacy telephony] over 15 to 20 years,'
said McHugh, VP of HP's Pro-Curve networking.
He predicted that by 2010 10Gbits/sec links to the desktop over copper lines
would be available to a privileged few, but 1Gbits/sec would be sufficient for
most links between company premises and metropolitan trunk lines.
Mobile roaming will be 'transparent and robust' and video calling from
handhelds will be widely available and largely unused. 'That's because people
simply don't want it,' McHugh said.
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